All net household growth over the next two decades will be from minority households, a new report released from the Urban Institute finds. Between 2020 and 2040, researchers project about 16.1 million net new households will be created.
In that time period, Hispanic households are expected to increase by 8.6 million, Black households will grow by 3.3 million, and households of other races—mostly Asian households—will increase by 4.8 million. White households, on the other hand, are projected to decline by 600,000.
White households have the highest homeownership “headship” rates currently, but nonwhite group are making up an increasing share of the population. “Such changes in racial and ethnic composition will also affect overall headship rates,” the report notes.
Still, the report projects an overall slowdown in household growth rate over the next two decades. From 1990 to 2010, household growth averaged 12.4 million units per decade, but the rate has steadily dropped over the years. The Urban Institute predicts that from 2020 to 2030, household growth will drop to 8.5 million, and from 2030 to 2040, growth will drop to 7.6 million.
“This decline is the result of slowing U.S. population growth and lower headship rates for most age groups,” the report notes.
Source: “The Future of Headship and Homeownership,” Urban Institute (Jan. 21, 2021)